UNCERTAINTY AND STRATEGY INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH CENTER (USIRC)

Human organizations and their environments are complex human systems that are uncertain, and becoming increasingly so.

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This uncertainty poses a major challenge in terms of the relevant strategic approach and appropriate tools to be offered to present and future executives of these organizations. Uncertainty is also present in geopolitical dimension and increasingly so. Finally, uncertainty has major consequences in terms of the collection, use and protection of information and data, as well as their use as part of an influence strategy - key aspects in terms of competitive and strategic intelligence.

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The classic approach to strategy is based on the model of a super-rational agent, a predictive strategy approach. Goals are set, the current situation in the external and internal environment is analyzed AND, based on predictions of the future, strategic choices are made which are then implemented.

 

This classic approach, in an uncertain environment, as the one of complex human systems, proves inadequate, as it exposes us to frequent errors of prediction and therefore to strategic surprises/errors, and to a sterile thought-action dichotomy.